It’s been a… weird year in movies.
In an interview, Quentin Tarantino asked, “What the f#k is a movie now?” Yeah. Good question.
From THE BRUTALIST, an ambitious (and pretentious) period piece — clocking in at 3 hours and 35 minutes! — and shot in VistaVision for under $10m!… to EMILIA PÉREZ, a musical about the trans leader of a Mexican drug cartel (made by a French director!)… to SING SING, with a cast consisting almost entirely of former inmates… to FLOW, an animated tone poem(?) about a cat and friends in a boat, with NO dialogue (ya know, because cats can’t talk. Duh.)… to BETTER MAN and KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, both with CGI apes in lead roles! Oh, and let’s not forget about whatever the hell is happening in the last thirty minutes of THE SUBSTANCE.
All of this makes for tricky Oscar predictions. This year, more than most, feels like picking between apples and oranges. How do you even compare DUNE to I’M STILL HERE? Or WICKED to NICKEL BOYS?
But that, my friends, is exactly what we must do. So, here we go — my picks for the 2025 Academy Awards…
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: ADRIAN BRODY, The Brutalist
Should Win: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A Complete Unknown
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will Win: KIERAN CULKIN, A Real Pain
Should Win: KIERAN CULKIN, A Real Pain (*although, ca we talk about the acting range of Edward Norton?)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: DEMI MOORE, The Substance
Should Win: DEMI MOORE, The Substance
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will Win: ZOE SALDAÑA, Emilia Pérez
Should Win: ZOE SALDAÑA, Emilia Pérez
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: THE WILD ROBOT
Should Win: THE WILD ROBOT
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: THE BRUTALIST, Lol Crawley
Should Win: MARIA, Ed Lachman
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: WICKED, Paul Tazewell
Should Win: WICKED, Paul Tazewell
DIRECTING
Will Win: ANORA, Sean Baker
Should Win: ANORA, Sean Baker (*Edward Berger should have been nominated for CONCLAVE.)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: NA
Should Win: NA
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Will Win: NA
Should Win: NA
FILM EDITING
Will Win: ANORA, Sean Baker
Should Win: CONCLAVE, Nick Emerson
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Will Win: I’M STILL HERE, Brazil
Should Win: I’M STILL HERE, Brazil
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: WICKED, Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
Should Win: WICKED, Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: THE BRUTALIST, Daniel Blumberg
Should Win: CONCLAVE, Volker Bertelmann
ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “EL MAL” from Emilia Perez
Should Win: “EL MAL” from Emilia Perez
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: ANORA
Should Win: A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: THE BRUTALIST
Should Win: WICKED
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will Win: NA
Should Win: NA
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will Win: NA
Should Win: NA
SOUND
Will Win: DUNE, PART II
Should Win: A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: DUNE: PART TWO
Should Win: KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: CONCLAVE, Peter Straughan
Should Win: CONCLAVE, Peter Straughan
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: ANORA, Sean Baker
Should Win: ANORA, Sean Baker